🔍 Read the full analysis: How Work Is Organized Across Three Sectors on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
A November 2 report from ThorstenMeyerAI.com explains how work is commonly grouped into primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, and traces the long-term shift from farming toward services. It cites historical and modelled employment estimates, while warning that sector definitions vary and that its prediction of automation becoming a separate sector is a thesis, not an established finding.
ThorstenMeyerAI.com published the first episode of its planned 60-part series on how work is organized and changes as economies develop, using the familiar division into primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. The report traces the long-term movement of workers from farming into manufacturing and services, while emphasizing that the categories are a useful but imperfect map—not a complete description of every job.
The report defines the primary sector as work that takes resources from nature, including farming, fishing and forestry; mining is often included, though classifications differ. The secondary sector makes or builds things, covering manufacturing, construction and energy. The tertiary sector provides services, such as trade, transport, health care, education and government. A loaf of bread offers a simple example: growing wheat is primary work, making bread is secondary, and transporting and selling it are services.
To show how employment has changed, the article cites historical estimates by economic historian Stanley Lebergott: farming accounted for 73.7% of the U.S. labor force in 1800, 54.8% in 1850, 40.2% in 1900 and 12.0% in 1950. It also gives the International Labour Organization’s modelled estimate of 1.5% for 2025. These figures refer to farming’s share of the U.S. labor force, not the number of people employed in farming.
The article reports further shifts using national and international estimates: China’s primary-sector share of employment fell from 83.5% in 1952 to 22.2% in 2024, while Japan’s census measure declined from 53.8% in 1920 to 3.2% in 2020. It says that, in ILO modelled estimates, services have employed more people worldwide than farming since 2001. These series use different definitions and periods, so they should not be treated as identical measures.
How Employment Has Rebalanced
The sector map helps explain how economic change affects workers: as productivity and technology alter how goods are produced, fewer workers may be needed in some activities while employment grows elsewhere. The report’s historical examples show that the decline in farming’s share did not mean food production stopped; rather, employment shifted toward other kinds of work. That distinction matters when discussing automation today, because a fall in jobs in one sector does not by itself establish what happens to total employment or to workers displaced from particular roles.
The article also challenges the claim that the United States no longer makes goods. It says U.S. factory employment is about 35% below its June 1979 peak, while real manufacturing output in 2025 was about 1.9 times its 1979 level. Those measures describe different things—jobs and inflation-adjusted output—and together suggest that production can rise even as the industry employs fewer people. The report does not provide a detailed account of the causes behind that change.
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Where the Three-Sector Map Came From
The report traces the terminology to early 20th-century economic writing. New Zealand economist Allan G. B. Fisher used the term “tertiary” in work written in 1934 and published in 1935. British-born economist Colin Clark developed cross-country comparisons in his 1940 book, describing the movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing and then to commerce and services. The categories became a way to compare how employment was distributed as economies changed.
French economist Jean Fourastié argued in 1949 that services would take in workers released as technology improved production. His reasoning, as summarized in the source, was that manufacturing could raise output rapidly through mechanization, while many services remained harder to scale in the same way. The report presents this as an influential argument, not proof that every displaced worker finds a service job or that future technological change will follow the same pattern.
The three categories are not applied uniformly. The source notes that a software engineer working for a carmaker could be counted under manufacturing in one statistical system and services in another. Mining is another example: it is often placed in the primary sector, but Clark’s classification and Japan’s census place it in the secondary sector. Comparisons across countries and time therefore depend on how each dataset defines industries.
Limits of the Sector Data
The figures cited do not all measure the same thing. They cover different geographies, years and categories, and the source notes that mining and some professional work may be assigned to different sectors depending on the statistical system. The report gives the ILO’s 2025 U.S. farming share as a modelled estimate, while other figures come from historical estimates or national censuses. Those differences limit direct comparisons.
The article also offers a forward-looking thesis: automation could become a sector of its own within a decade or several decades, potentially performing up to 90% of work without a human hand. That projection is explicitly presented as the author’s thesis, not a measured outcome or established forecast. The source material does not specify how “work” would be defined, how the 90% figure was calculated, or which jobs and economies it would cover.
It remains unclear how the series will evaluate that prediction or what evidence it will use to distinguish tasks automated by machines from whole jobs removed or created. The report’s historical comparisons provide context for the argument but do not, on their own, settle those questions.
The Series Turns to Automation
The article identifies itself as Episode 1 of a planned 60-episode daily series called “Work After Work.” It says later episodes will examine how work has moved between sectors and which kinds of work may remain human as machines take on more tasks. The author says the automation thesis will be examined in Episode 48, but the source does not give a calendar date for that installment.
For readers following the series, the next useful test will be whether later episodes define their employment measures and distinguish between automation of specific tasks and changes in the number or type of jobs. The report provides no additional publication schedule or evidence for its long-range automation estimate.
Key Questions
What are the three economic sectors?
The primary sector takes resources from nature, the secondary sector makes or builds goods, and the tertiary sector provides services. The boundaries can vary by statistical system.
What is the main development in this report?
ThorstenMeyerAI.com published the first episode of a planned 60-part series on how work is organized and changes across the economy. The opening report uses the three-sector model to explain long-term employment shifts.
When did services overtake farming in worldwide employment?
The report says that, according to ILO modelled estimates, services have employed more people worldwide than farming since 2001.
Does the article establish that automation will perform 90% of work?
No. The figure is presented as the author’s thesis about a possible future, not as a confirmed finding or established forecast. The report does not explain the calculation or define the scope of “work” for that estimate.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
