TL;DR
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U.S. factories employed 12.7 million people in October 2026, down from a peak of 19.6 million in June 1979, while manufacturing output was nearly twice its 1979 level in September. The report says factory employment also peaked in Germany and China, and estimates that Chinese import competition accounted for up to about one million of nearly six million U.S. factory jobs lost from 1999 to 2011.
A report published November 8 says U.S. factory employment fell to 12.7 million jobs in October 2026, about 35% below its June 1979 peak, even as manufacturing output in September remained nearly twice its 1979 level. The figures illustrate how factory production can rise while the number of people employed in manufacturing declines, a shift the report also traces in Germany and China, reflecting changes in factory work.
The U.S. employment figures come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll series, which counts jobs at employers outside farming. It excludes self-employed people and workers in private households. The series began in 1939, when factories had about 9.1 million payroll jobs, or 30.3% of all nonfarm payroll employment.
Factory employment reached its highest share of payroll jobs in November 1943, at 38.8%, with 16.6 million jobs. The number of jobs kept growing for decades as the overall economy expanded. It peaked in June 1979 at 19,553,000, while manufacturing’s share had fallen to 21.7%. By October 2026, manufacturing accounted for 8.0% of payroll jobs, according to the preliminary figure cited in the report.
The decline accelerated between January 2000 and February 2010, when U.S. manufacturing employment fell from 17.3 million to 11.4 million, a loss of almost six million jobs. The count later recovered somewhat, but remained below its 1979 peak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve manufacturing output index stood at 1.95 times its June 1979 level in September 2026. The report says output has been flat since its 2007 high and was about 9% below that peak in September.
Factory jobs fall as output grows
U.S. factories employed fewer people than at their 1979 peak, while manufacturing output nearly doubled. The shift matters for workers and communities as production grows without a matching rise in factory jobs.
A different factory workforce
Output and employment have moved in different directions over the long term.
- September output was nearly twice its 1979 level.
- Output remained about 9% below its 2007 high.
- October employment was about 35% below the 1979 peak.
- Manufacturing now accounts for a smaller share of payroll jobs.
The pattern reaches beyond the U.S.
The report describes employment peaks in all three countries, using measures that are not directly comparable.
Peak in 1979
Factory employment reached 19.6 million jobs in June 1979.
Industry’s share fell
The share of workers in industry and construction was 49.2% in West Germany in 1965 and 22.9% in Germany in 2025.
Industry employment peaked
Industry and construction employment reached 232 million in 2012.
Trade explains part of the decline
The report says the U.S. job decline began before China joined the WTO.
Almost six million U.S. factory jobs were lost from 1999 to 2011.
Estimates cited by the report attribute up to about one million jobs to rising Chinese import competition.
The report does not quantify the roles of automation, productivity, recessions or other factors across the long-term decline.
Fewer Workers, More Factory Output
The figures show why factory jobs and factory production do not move in lockstep. U.S. manufacturing produced nearly twice as much in September 2026 as in June 1979, while employing roughly one-third fewer people. The report calculates output per factory job at about three times its 1979 level, though that comparison does not adjust for hours worked and is not a measure of individual worker productivity.
For workers and communities, the employment decline means manufacturing now represents a much smaller share of payroll jobs than it did in the middle of the 20th century. The report’s figures also complicate claims that all lost U.S. factory work moved overseas: it says the decline began well before China joined the World Trade Organization, while acknowledging that import competition contributed to job losses later.
The output measure offers a different view of the industry’s scale. Production remained substantially above its 1979 level, but had not returned to its 2007 high by September 2026. The figures therefore describe both a long-term increase in manufacturing output and a more recent period of flat output below that peak.
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Three Countries, Earlier Peaks
The report places the U.S. trend alongside changes in Germany and China. In West Germany, industry and construction employed 49.2% of workers in 1965; the comparable figure for Germany was 22.9% in 2025. In China, employment in industry and construction peaked at 232 million in 2012, according to the report. These figures cover broader sectors than U.S. manufacturing payroll jobs, so they are not directly interchangeable.
The report cites economist Colin Clark, who wrote in 1940 that “the proportion of the working population engaged in secondary industry appears in every country to rise to a maximum and then to begin falling.” Secondary industry generally includes manufacturing and, depending on the definition, construction, energy and mining. The report uses the pattern to frame the declines it identifies across the three countries.
China’s role in U.S. factory job losses is more specific. The report says the U.S. decline began in 1979, 22 years before China joined the WTO. It cites economists’ estimates that rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million U.S. factory jobs between 1999 and 2011, out of almost six million lost over that period. That estimate assigns a portion of the decline to import competition; it does not attribute the entire loss to China.
““The number to remember is 19.6 million.””
— Thorsten Meyer AI report
Limits of the Employment Figures
The October 2026 U.S. employment count is preliminary, and the report does not provide a final revised figure. Its output comparison uses an index of real manufacturing production, while the employment series counts payroll jobs; the measures describe different parts of the industry.
The report’s estimate of jobs affected by rising Chinese imports is stated as “up to about” one million for 1999 to 2011. The source material does not give the estimate’s methodology or a more precise range. It also does not quantify how much of the wider, long-term employment decline was due to automation, productivity changes, trade, recessions or other factors.
The comparison of output per job does not account for hours worked. The figures therefore cannot show from this calculation alone how output per hour changed, or how gains in production were distributed among workers, firms and consumers. The cited Germany and China employment measures include construction and other industry, unlike the U.S. manufacturing payroll series.
Watch Revisions and Output
The immediate data point to watch is whether the October 2026 payroll estimate changes in later BLS revisions. Future monthly employment releases will show whether manufacturing jobs continue to recover, remain near the current level or fall again.
Output data will help clarify whether the recent period of flat production continues. The September index was about 9% below the 2007 high, according to the report; subsequent Federal Reserve readings can show whether manufacturing output moves closer to that peak or remains below it. The report does not identify a specific forecast or scheduled milestone beyond those ongoing releases.
Key Questions
When did U.S. factory employment peak?
The BLS payroll series cited by the report recorded 19,553,000 manufacturing jobs in June 1979, its highest monthly count. The manufacturing share of all nonfarm payroll jobs had peaked earlier, in November 1943.
How many U.S. factory jobs were there in October 2026?
The report cites a preliminary total of 12.7 million, equal to 8.0% of all nonfarm payroll jobs. The figure may be revised.
Did factory output fall along with employment?
No. The report says U.S. manufacturing output in September 2026 was 1.95 times its June 1979 level. It was about 9% below the output series’ 2007 high.
Did Chinese imports account for all U.S. factory job losses?
No. The report says the U.S. factory job decline started in 1979, before China joined the WTO. It cites estimates that rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million jobs from 1999 to 2011, out of almost six million lost in that period.
Source: Thorsten Meyer AI
