Jack Clark predicts over 60% chance of fully automated AI research by 2028, raising concerns about institutional capacity and future risks.
The Co-Founder’s Black Hole — A Structural Read on Jack Clark’s Automated AI R&D Essay
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AI & Tooling
242 posts
Every Benchmark Launched 2023-2024 Has Fallen — The METR / SWE-Bench / CORE-Bench / MLE-Bench / PostTrainBench Sequence
Every major AI research benchmark launched between 2023 and 2024 has reached saturation or is nearing it, indicating rapid progress in AI capabilities.
Jack Clark Says It Out Loud — Reading the Co-Founder’s 60%/2028 Estimate on Automated AI R&D
Anthropic’s co-founder Jack Clark states there is a 60%+ probability that autonomous AI R&D could occur without human involvement by the end of 2028, signaling a major policy stance.
The Skills Marketplace, Six Months Later: Predicted vs Actual
An analysis of the emerging skills marketplace six months after predictions, highlighting growth, fragmentation, and structural challenges.
The Compute Concentration Audit: When Sovereign Wealth Funds Notice Three Companies Own the Frontier
Global regulators are investigating the dominance of AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud in AI infrastructure, impacting frontier AI labs and sovereign investments.
The New Personal Agent Layer
OpenClaw and Hermes introduce a new layer of persistent personal action agents, transforming how AI integrates with digital environments. Details are emerging.
The Continual Learning Research Map: Where the Memento Constraint Stands in May 2026
A May 2026 update on the research landscape addressing the Memento Constraint in continual learning for frontier AI models, highlighting current approaches and timelines.
One markdown file, publish-ready for every platform
A web tool now enables creators to convert a single markdown file into platform-specific formats, streamlining content distribution across blogs, newsletters, and social media.
The Skills Marketplace Nobody Is Building Yet
A new open standard for AI skills exists, but a dedicated marketplace for deploying and monetizing these skills has not yet been developed, creating a critical gap.
October 2026: What an Anthropic IPO Actually Unlocks
Anthropic’s planned IPO in October 2026, valued between $850B and $900B, will significantly impact AI industry dynamics and market valuations.
